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India: Emerging As An Alternative To China

The post quota scenario and India's position in the free trade market has become the talk of the town. The Indian textile and apparel industry's scenario went unnoticed by one and all for quite a long period. Finally, the industry seems to have a new lease of life, thanks to the nearing of the deadline for the phasing out of the Multi-Fibre Agreement. Many companies are now planning to expand, modernize, as well as restructure, which are all signs of preparations for the quota-free regime. The word is out and it is for all to know that the Indian textile industry is emerging as the next best option to China, no doubt that a plenty of improvement is required.

Importers from developed countries are attempting to decrease their dependence on China and are increasing sourcing from India. Already, for categories coming off quotas, we have observed huge development in exports from China, while production plants in other countries like Indonesia have been closing down. Also, within countries like India, one can see some more competitive companies develop speedily, while others are dwindling. Others consider that the US and Europe will not allow a country like China to develop, and will use available mechanisms to slow the rate of sourcing from China.

The sound position of India
With the country's budget supporting the textile sector, companies that had shifted out of India, to beat the quantitative barrier on exporting from India to the US, EU and Canada, are considering to return to India. Already many Indian companies like Arvind, Ambatur clothing, Gokaldas India and many other exporters are shifting their endeavors to India. In the post quota period, India is likely to attract huge investments in manufacturing.

According to the experts, China has been offering goods at 15-20 per cent lesser prices than India. But in a post-WTO world, where labor law implementation becomes necessary, labor charges in China will surely increase. Further more, China is largely into bulk exports, which comprise only 20 per cent of the global trade. The future of export is fabrics, fashion garments and made-ups and India being more into it will be a winner amongst it.

According to the study by United States International Trade Commission (USITC), India is in a favorable position in the post-quota regime. It states the country would gain due to the labor force, which is among the cheapest in the world and is best in designing. Indian apparels are exported to over 120 countries, which is the most noteworthy achievement among nations that are parties to the Multi-fibre Arrangement (MFA) covering the US and Western European nations. The exports to the MFA nations comprise 60 per cent of Indian exports. The USITC study further says that the US companies find India textile manufacturers more transparent and well-managed. Though, the industry identifies its fundamental weaknesses.

A recent report from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has forecasted that the influence of the phasing out of the ATC will have China and India dominating the world trade in textiles and clothing, with post-ATC market shares for China alone projected 50 per cent or more. Though, the report also suggests that smaller players might not be as adversely affected as assumed.

Both India and China will nearly double their market share, and China will be the single largest exporter.
The study explains that in the clothing sector China and India jointly receive 65 per cent of the total export to USA. China triples its market share while India's market share is quadrupled.

The report recommends that the result of phasing out of quotas will depend much more on the existing tariff rates and the preference margins of countries receiving such preferences than is confined by the conventional estimates. Second, time to market is significant and increasingly so, mainly in the fashion-clothing sector. Hence, countries nearer to the major markets are expected to be less influenced by competition from India and China than has been anticipated in earlier studies. Mexico, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe and North Africa are therefore expected to remain important exporters to the US and EU accordingly and perhaps maintain their market shares.

The countries that are most probable to lose market contributions are those situated far from the major markets and which have had either tariff and quota -free access to the United States and EU markets, or which have had non-binding quotas. These countries will certainly experience adjustment problems. Also, local manufacturers in EU, the United States and Canada are likely to lose their market shares.

But the anticipated increase in market contribution may be less than projected, as nearness to the major markets assumes rising economic importance and tariffs are increasingly restraining trade because of the fact that products cross borders many times. Also, many developing countries are catching up with China in terms of unit labor costs in textile and clothing sector and China has of yet not shown its strength in the design and fashion segments of the markers.

Western consumers now spend less but shop more frequently for ever-changing fashions, pushing the industry to change production frequently and get new designs into stores more quickly. This becomes an advantage to exporters who can then provide the combination of short delivery times and low costs. Their position is enhanced even further by preferential access to the markers through regional trade agreements.

Though, the DHL-McKinsey report suggests two different post quota scenarios. One is that the US and EU will completely liberalise and permit brand owners and retailers to source without any restrictions. A second scenario is that they will enforce transitional protection devices and / or increase duties to restrict imports. We don't believe that it is possible to forecast a result. The only thing we can do is understand the implications of these two scenarios.

Under the first scenario, the report suggests that China could capture up to 50 per cent of the world exports, allowing it to grow approximately to 20 per cent per annum over the next four years. Under the second scenario, China's growth could be restricted to be less than 10 per cent for a number of years.

In either scenario, India could be the next largest gainer after China: India has the possible benefit of local textile manufacturing, competitive labor costs and strong capabilities in particular categories. This is observed in its high current quota fill rates to both the US and EU. In reality, we estimate that exports could grow at 15 to 18 per cent pa, considerably quicker than its historical growth rate of 6 per cent pa, if some key modifications are made. This is achievable even if India cannot take any share from China, and cannot compete with the free trade zone. By increasing its share in countries outside the free trade zones, India should be capable to capture 5 per cent share of the world market for apparel exports by 2008, and yield an export value of $25-30 billion by 2013. However, if India only continues with piecemeal implementation of reforms, we anticipate the fastest it can increase will be 8 per cent pa.

The requirement to achieve this position

The McKinsey study compared productivity in various leading Indian industries with other countries. The study covered the garment industry and analyzed a number of men's shirts produced per hour by India tailors, domestic producers and exporters in comparison with Chinese exporters and US producers. Productivity of Indian exporters is 35 per cent of US levels, against Chinese exporters that work at 55 per cent. The overall productivity of the Indian industry, covering tailors and domestic producers, is only 16 per cent of the US.

So what drives the lower productivity of Indian exporters? These points can be remarked through a combination of government led reforms and developments in management procedures. Let us consider the government modifications first.

Need for Government Reforms

Although the government has done some progressive modifications (e.g. de-reservation 6 readymade woven garment sectors), still many basic reforms are required.

. Foreign direct investment
Attracting more investment, particularly foreign investment (FDI), should be a main concern. This will require making level domestic market playing fields through increasing de-reservation to the remaining knitwear segment (hosiery and cloth), and further decrement in import duties on apparel, textile and machinery. Although this will be of main advantage to the local market, as it will improve the competitiveness of big scale producers. Further decreasing import duties on fabrics / garments to Asian levels.

. Modification in labour laws
More flexibility is required to facilitate retrenchment in case of units with more than 100 workers. Presently this takes many years and works as a deterrent to investment. There also need to be more safeguard against labor unrest and exemption in the Shop and Establishment Act to permit women workers in the night shift (this is at present available for workers in the software services and ITES segments).

Other modification needed

Further more, there are many modifications needed in many other areas:

. Simplifying taxes
Imposing uniform VAT across states will encourage companies to establish large-scale units. Moreover, rationalizing excise duties between cotton and man made fabric will also be needed.

. Modification in infrastructure
Modification in infrastructure, communication and power condition is required. More well-organized ports, like the new Bombay port and private ports will be required as India increases its exports.

. Make procedures simple
Many manufacturers complicate and delay the import and export of products. Long custom procedures and documentation are the key hurdles.

. Signing bilateral agreements
Signing bilateral agreements with US and EU under the quota free system will need to be competitive as compared to other low cost exporters such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

. Modification of management needed
Completely experiencing the growth potential will also need producers to increase productivity and performance in the following manners:

Investing to maintain relationships with the right customers

For Indian producers to win longer term, they require to be supplying brand owners and retailers who will be successful and developing.

Contribution of specialised retailers is increasing. In the last decade, the share of discounters (e.g. Wal-Mart) and vertically integrated specialty stores (e.g. Nike) raised by nearly 10 per cent points, with the result that they control almost 40 per cent points of share in both, the US and Europe. Considering the constant projected growth of discounters and vertically integrated specialists, it will be vital to aim for the winners in these sectors.

Consolidation to achieve scale drove a 33 per cent reduction in the number of retail players between 1995 and 1999. The termination of many players makes it even more crucial to target the winners.

Direct sourcing has increased in Europe from 15 per cent to over 30 per cent of retail volumes.

This has been determined by the development in vertically integrated specialists, as well as the retailers managing more direct sourcing to increase their margins.

Requirement of supply chains

. Optimization of time to market and logistics costs

Many consumers have established the benchmark by moving production to retail time down to 4 weeks. They have indicated to decrease apparel product development lifecycle from around 12 months to nine months. Maximizing transport modes is one opportunity being followed aggressively by sophisticated customers and suppliers and is a mainly an important issue for India considering its distance from main markets, particularly the US.

. Reliability and security

Many manufacturers are inviting their logistics partners to work with suppliers on quality controls with vendors.

. Supply chain visibility

More customers are in need of production and shipment data incorporated with their own systems to assess easy tracing and inventory management according to their needs. Some are even charging penalties if shipment information is not offered on a regular basis.

. Value added requirement

Higher end consumers require prompt and perfect services such as ironing, hanging and special packaging.

Conclusion

In the end, there is no doubt that both China and India will hold good market shares in the European Union, the United States and Canada to a large extent. India is fortunately positioned to benefit from freer trade in textiles and apparel. In order to realize this prospect, it must rapidly undertake the main progressive modifications necessary to have a more competitive sector than China. India will be capable to provide more competitive prices when it will stop charging 20-25 per cent more to meet the quota premiums. India has to meet the challenge of international open markets. India has the capability and resources to face these challenges. At the same time the interest of India and China are at best complimentary. These two countries can stand out as the future clothiers of the world.

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